0xa1e3ba4f3a50015723f22965486ad278d22efe03
0xa1e3ba4f3a50015723f22965486ad278d22efe03
- Realised P&L
- $3.35
- Volume
- $383.53
- Markets traded
- 149
- Open portfolio
- $5.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded149
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026? · No | 0.260 | 0.660 | $2.54 | +$1.54 |
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26? · Yes | 0.720 | 1.000 | $1.39 | +$0.39 |
| Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31? · No | 0.730 | 0.720 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.575 | $0.76 | −$0.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.46at 0.330Will anyone say "Coffee" during Big Brother E35?
- +$4.41at 0.339SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$3.69at 0.379S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6?
- +$3.44at 0.390US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
- +$3.30at 0.400Will anyone say "Coffee" during Big Brother E37?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 16:18 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 21:27 | Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6929997325 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 11:48 | Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-29 03:12 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 15:48 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 07:33 | Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 23:31 | Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 15:25 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $244 Week of October 26 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 07:24 | Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-26 23:24 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 14:47 | Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-25 01:58 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-24 15:43 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-24 07:06 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 20:45 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |