0xA1D6B7c8f2271D153A60d48F5656f6Cc49d4982D-1777574009113
0xa1d6b7c8f2271d153a60d48f5656f6cc49d4982d
- Realised P&L
- $1.1k
- Volume
- $66.0k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.194 | 0.255 | $1.1k | +$260.30 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET · Down | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.20 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$90.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET · Up | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET · Down | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET · Up | 0.062 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$17.40 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET · Up | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? · No | 0.053 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.22 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.05 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.053 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$477.62at 0.077Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$399.76at 0.014Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
- +$244.82at 0.246Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?
- +$1.18at 0.350Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
- +$0.89at 0.304Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 22:29 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.05 |
| 08-06 22:28 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $55.95 |
| 07-02 18:02 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $60.00 |
| 07-02 17:57 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $6.30 |
| 07-01 07:52 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | BUY | 0.0534516406 | $11.22 |
| 06-30 21:05 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $96.09 |
| 06-26 00:30 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.005 | $0.04 |
| 06-23 10:16 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.004 | $14.40 |
| 06-23 10:02 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.006998339 | $27.30 |
| 06-22 18:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.5099999796 | $5.00 |
| 06-22 18:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 18:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.02 | $1.00 |
| 06-22 18:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.04 | $2.00 |
| 06-22 18:26 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.07 | $3.50 |
| 06-22 18:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.33 | $9.90 |