PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Risto

0xa17325d33b095b6bb48d475a3578fecbdff73315

Realised P&L
$21.3k
Volume
$5.13M
Markets traded
452
Open portfolio
$16.5k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded452
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration52.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration26.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.8640.847$4.4k−$93.06
Ethereal FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No0.5800.851$4.3k+$1.4k
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8400.825$2.5k−$45.00
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? · No0.7790.865$1.3k+$129.53
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No0.7620.961$1.0k+$216.96
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? · No0.7720.944$944.31+$171.48
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027? · Yes0.5100.515$514.99+$5.00
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · No0.7590.971$485.27+$105.93
Iran Nuke before 2027? · No0.8550.964$289.04+$32.55
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? · No0.8670.977$216.77+$24.31
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.2100.115$161.00−$133.00
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes0.0460.032$141.75−$65.25
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? · Yes0.9300.935$136.51+$0.73
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat? · Yes0.6600.665$86.86+$0.65
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0160.005$35.63−$78.39

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 22:40Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?BUY0.66$86.21
10-29 09:05Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?SELL0.57$113.99
10-11 11:21Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?SELL0.9$1.79
10-11 11:19Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.8359393707$413.63
10-08 20:15Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.871$348.40
10-08 20:15Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.21$294.00
09-27 21:31Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch?SELL0.45$4.50
09-26 20:37Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY0.425$85.00
09-26 11:53Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY0.428$843.16
09-20 21:16Will Yabloko win at least one seat in the next Russian State Duma election?BUY0.95$308.26
09-20 20:16Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?BUY0.64$167.04
09-19 00:11Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.006$0.72
09-19 00:10Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.006$15.00
09-19 00:10Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.006$15.00
09-15 21:59Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch?SELL0.897$13.93