clanker1000
0xa1648ecc6f7c24ea778a45183097b4c9524f4686
- Realised P&L
- $-616.68
- Volume
- $183.9k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $563.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.927 | 0.973 | $464.61 | +$21.48 |
| Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.140 | $28.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Payward announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.860 | 0.895 | $24.16 | +$0.94 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? · No | 0.984 | 0.859 | $18.90 | −$2.75 |
| Will Drake perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? · Yes | 0.157 | 0.157 | $13.35 | −$0.00 |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? · Yes | 0.115 | 0.108 | $11.94 | −$0.71 |
| Will Strasbourg win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.002 | $2.25 | −$3.75 |
| Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.80 |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$37.60at 0.906Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026?
- +$33.00at 0.890Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$26.79at 0.081GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
- +$21.42at 0.580No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
- +$21.00at 0.890EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 01:46 | Will Olivia Rodrigo perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.55 |
| 10-21 01:46 | Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $55.70 |
| 10-21 01:25 | Will Jay Z perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? | BUY | 0.06 | $3.18 |
| 10-21 01:22 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.9739807944 | $484.31 |
| 10-21 01:21 | Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.0204 | $2.04 |
| 09-25 01:48 | Will Payward announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $23.22 |
| 09-25 01:47 | Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $55.09 |
| 09-25 01:46 | Will Strasbourg win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship? | BUY | 0.004 | $6.00 |
| 09-04 12:37 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.952 | $309.40 |
| 09-04 12:34 | Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? | SELL | 0.929 | $25.34 |
| 07-29 16:45 | Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.56 | $7.22 |
| 07-29 12:48 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.3113133333 | $93.39 |
| 07-29 12:48 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.41 | $102.50 |
| 07-29 08:32 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.51 | $127.50 |
| 07-29 03:42 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.313 | $31.30 |