0xa16008f1bfff62da135f7c657761798634d69803
0xa16008f1bfff62da135f7c657761798634d69803
- Realised P&L
- $4.44
- Volume
- $356.35
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $6.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $186 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.720 | $3.43 | +$1.43 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.500 | $1.25 | −$0.75 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.150 | $1.11 | −$0.89 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · No | 0.370 | 0.045 | $0.25 | −$1.75 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.91at 0.259Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026?
- +$5.86at 0.261Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
- +$5.69at 0.260US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$5.63at 0.268Will Trump say "Nuclear" during remarks at NASA?
- +$5.33at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 09:21 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $186 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.419999979 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 00:18 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999954 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 14:01 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 06:00 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 19:41 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 11:36 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 11:31 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999116 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 03:15 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 19:14 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 10:36 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 10:36 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 02:34 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.7799999752 | $1.89 |
| 09-16 02:32 | Will Warsh say "Pandemic" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.4299999807 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 14:04 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 03:01 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.00 |