yolkhead
0xa148f913e62759a9955772c5c5ffa36277f7f655
- Realised P&L
- $-149.75
- Volume
- $35.7k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $796.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? · No | 0.800 | 0.795 | $795.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.069 | 0.132 | $1.58 | +$0.75 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.84 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET · Down | 0.273 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.134 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.89 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? · Yes | 0.073 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.60 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 2, 2026? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$117.52at 0.764Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?
- +$65.78at 0.884Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
- +$63.44at 0.357Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- +$38.82at 0.739Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$29.54at 0.950Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 09:18 | Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? | BUY | 0.8 | $800.00 |
| 09-04 14:33 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $130.45 |
| 08-06 07:36 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.8499999996 | $111.00 |
| 07-25 19:35 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $9.00 |
| 07-25 19:35 | Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999916 | $20.00 |
| 07-25 19:33 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $100.00 |
| 07-25 19:32 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.995 | $130.39 |
| 07-25 18:39 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.56 |
| 07-25 18:38 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | BUY | 0.0179999825 | $1.00 |
| 07-25 18:37 | Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.0040404608 | $1.29 |
| 07-23 16:43 | Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.0062778481 | $2.00 |
| 07-23 16:33 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999999 | $500.00 |
| 07-23 13:59 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.5599999993 | $100.00 |
| 07-13 19:35 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL | 0.247 | $4.36 |
| 07-08 12:19 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999609 | $3.00 |