PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

ferliv

0xa1357fd9a680474ef57ca9c6f957b777bd2df389

Realised P&L
$-100.80
Volume
$9.8k
Markets traded
145
Open portfolio
$1.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded145
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration41.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration10.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-05 House election by 0%-5%? · No0.8550.944$118.60+$11.10
Will Arizona Cardinals advance to the Divisional Round in the 2027 NFL Playoffs? · No0.9390.965$107.40+$2.90
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-02 House election by 0%-5%? · No0.8600.948$98.54+$9.10
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-19 House election by 3% or more? · No0.9200.973$97.25+$5.25
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KS-02 House election by 3% or more? · No0.8880.912$94.19+$2.52
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 5% or more? · No0.8700.960$87.74+$8.21
Will over 64 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? · No0.9070.860$86.06−$4.74
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-05 House election by 0%-3%? · No0.9590.983$49.13+$1.18
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-06 House election by 5% or more? · No0.9460.965$43.60+$0.85
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-06 House election by 0%-5%? · No0.9460.924$41.77−$0.98
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WA-08 House election by 0%-5%? · No0.9460.918$41.52−$1.23
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WA-08 House election by 5% or more? · No0.9500.925$36.99−$1.00
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-11 House election by 3% or more? · No0.8290.977$34.23+$5.18
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-02 House seat? · Yes0.0590.205$25.24+$18.03
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-25 House election by 0%-5%? · No0.9260.511$24.63−$20.01

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-29 16:04Swiss Indoors Basel: Alex Michelsen vs Arthur FilsSELL0.45$6.75
10-29 13:17Swiss Indoors Basel: Valentin Vacherot vs Rafael JodarSELL0.43$1.57
10-28 17:41Erste Bank Open: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian MannarinoSELL0.49$9.80
10-28 17:19Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?BUY0.2799999978$10.00
10-28 17:18Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?BUY0.1161665044$5.00
10-28 16:46Swiss Indoors Basel: Novak Djokovic vs Ugo HumbertSELL0.2$13.00
10-28 14:16Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?BUY0.1275775383$10.00
10-28 14:14Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?BUY0.2799999978$5.00
10-28 11:48Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?BUY0.0544771228$5.00
10-28 11:38Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?BUY0.0179999999$1.00
10-28 11:36Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?BUY0.007$5.00
10-28 11:36Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?BUY0.0599999995$5.00
10-28 10:43Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?BUY0.0609999993$5.00
10-27 14:30Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?BUY0.91$26.39
10-27 14:26Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?BUY0.899999928$10.00