PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

ferliv

0xa1357fd9a680474ef57ca9c6f957b777bd2df389

Realised P&L
$-25.29
Volume
$5.5k
Markets traded
83
Open portfolio
$1.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded83
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration27.5% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample46 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)69.6%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration15.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Baltimore Orioles advance to the ALDS in the 2026 MLB Playoffs? · No0.8600.995$216.30+$29.25
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.73% in September? · No0.7800.930$186.47+$30.07
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-05 House election by 0%-5%? · No0.8550.994$124.94+$17.44
Will Arizona Cardinals advance to the Divisional Round in the 2027 NFL Playoffs? · No0.9390.945$105.17+$0.67
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-19 House election by 3% or more? · No0.9200.981$98.05+$6.05
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-02 House election by 0%-5%? · No0.8600.920$95.68+$6.24
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KS-02 House election by 3% or more? · No0.8880.910$93.93+$2.26
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-12 House election by 5% or more? · No0.8700.915$83.63+$4.10
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-05 House election by 0%-3%? · No0.9590.958$47.90$0.05
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-25 House election by 0%-5%? · No0.9260.690$33.26$11.38
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-06 House election by 0%-5%? · No0.9460.710$32.08$10.67
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-06 House election by 5% or more? · No0.9460.700$31.63$11.12
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-11 House election by 3% or more? · No0.8290.872$30.55+$1.50
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September? · Yes0.2000.150$30.07$10.03
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WA-08 House election by 5% or more? · No0.9500.735$29.39$8.60

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 15:35Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-11 House election by 3% or more?BUY0.8292577906$29.05
09-16 15:35Will the Democratic Party win the FL-11 House seat?BUY0.15$5.25
09-16 08:58Will Bayer Leverkusen reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal?BUY0.48$9.60
09-16 08:58Will Bayer Leverkusen reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League semifinal?BUY0.4134730183$8.40
09-16 08:58Will Democrats sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?BUY0.77$10.78
09-16 08:58Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?BUY0.17$2.38
09-15 13:24Will the Republican Party win the NY-19 House seat?BUY0.0549063006$6.10
09-15 13:24Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-19 House election by 3% or more?BUY0.92$92.00
09-15 12:53Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-05 House election by 0%-3%?BUY0.959$47.95
09-15 12:53Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat?BUY0.03$1.50
09-14 15:56Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KS-02 House election by 3% or more?BUY0.8880624794$91.67
09-14 15:56Will the Democratic Party win the KS-02 House seat?BUY0.0585634717$7.21
09-14 14:59Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-02 House election by 0%-5%?BUY0.86$89.44
09-14 14:59Will the Democratic Party win the FL-02 House seat?BUY0.09$9.36
09-12 09:38Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?BUY0.2$40.10