mhub9972
0xa131580670f56a50b8ad2230cb7b5d03d1cb2438
- Realised P&L
- $-255.43
- Volume
- $7.3k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $171.45
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.905 | $21.72 | +$2.04 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.895 | $21.48 | +$1.80 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September? · Yes | 0.473 | 0.658 | $21.14 | +$5.94 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.505 | $17.99 | −$1.96 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.695 | $16.68 | −$2.28 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.855 | $16.67 | +$1.85 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.957 | $16.51 | +$2.02 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.385 | $14.24 | −$5.36 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.670 | 0.885 | $12.83 | +$3.12 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.290 | $12.18 | −$7.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$73.83at 0.290Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-07-16?
- +$41.37at 0.327U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
- +$29.92at 0.445US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$29.16at 0.407Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 August 17-23?
- +$28.64at 0.408Will Ethereum reach $2,500 August 17-23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 04:07 | Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.56 | $19.95 |
| 09-21 17:43 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | SELL | 0.97 | $2.91 |
| 09-21 05:07 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.82 | $19.68 |
| 09-20 05:05 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.25 |
| 09-18 05:07 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September? | BUY | 0.4729999943 | $20.16 |
| 09-17 14:55 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | SELL | 0.36 | $18.72 |
| 09-17 11:32 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | SELL | 0.07 | $5.32 |
| 09-17 04:07 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.7749999907 | $18.72 |
| 09-16 15:07 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.47 | $19.74 |
| 09-16 14:48 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.7 | $18.90 |
| 09-16 07:11 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.78 | $19.50 |
| 09-14 15:07 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.79 | $18.96 |
| 09-14 04:07 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | BUY | 0.38 | $19.76 |
| 09-13 09:11 | Will "Instadocs: The Decoy Plane" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | SELL | 0.29 | $9.57 |
| 09-13 08:07 | Will "Instadocs: The Decoy Plane" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.6 | $19.80 |