celebrete
0xa1163bd06ceb8388c46351362d5ef249e4a506c9
- Realised P&L
- $-52.25
- Volume
- $15.9k
- Markets traded
- 4
- Open portfolio
- $34.29
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded4
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.270 | $34.29 | +$0.00 |
| Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal? · No | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.85at 0.733Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$-38.30at 0.760Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 02:06 | 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $5.94 |
| 07-15 02:05 | 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $11.34 |
| 07-15 02:03 | 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $9.45 |
| 07-15 02:02 | 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $7.56 |
| 04-24 07:43 | Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal? | SELL | 0.29 | $2.90 |
| 02-05 03:43 | Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.75 | $2.9k |
| 02-04 08:01 | Freddie Mac IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.9k |
| 02-04 02:32 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.736 | $2.9k |
| 02-03 02:31 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.733 | $2.8k |