alepsaurio777
0xa0f00313d2db1a6973441766c42b53ddafa0f07b
- Realised P&L
- $-2.16
- Volume
- $113.10
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $17.34
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.515 | $10.45 | −$1.73 |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.325 | $6.88 | −$2.65 |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on September 23? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.36at 0.579Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on September 25?
- +$1.78at 0.818Will Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament?
- +$-1.64at 0.522Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on September 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 19:04 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999953 | $9.53 |
| 09-25 16:02 | Will Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | BUY | 0.81 | $7.91 |
| 09-25 16:01 | Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on September 25? | SELL | 0.999 | $7.99 |
| 09-23 16:53 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on September 23? | BUY | 0.6 | $3.52 |
| 09-23 16:52 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on September 23? | SELL | 0.37 | $3.70 |
| 09-23 16:45 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.51 | $5.09 |
| 09-23 16:45 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on September 23? | SELL | 0.50677 | $5.07 |
| 09-22 23:54 | Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on September 25? | BUY | 0.562 | $4.50 |
| 09-22 23:53 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on September 23? | BUY | 0.69 | $6.90 |
| 09-22 23:36 | Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.6 | $3.07 |