rundfunkbeitraege
0xa04f4b17f83b72d80e215dd8ea4728f4300f15ba
- Realised P&L
- $673.65
- Volume
- $94.0k
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.670 | 0.740 | $605.32 | +$57.26 |
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.259 | 0.723 | $427.00 | +$273.93 |
| Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.125 | $52.50 | +$2.10 |
| Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.16 |
| Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$605.64at 0.201Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ole Miss Rebels
- +$571.86at 0.190Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5
- +$373.80at 0.580Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
- +$306.81at 0.310Will Seoul have less than 40mm of precipitation in April?
- +$304.50at 0.230Will FC Slovan Liberec win on 2026-04-04?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-12 00:25 | Will QFEX launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $632.70 |
| 04-10 21:05 | Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.259 | $153.07 |
| 04-10 00:03 | Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $41.58 |
| 04-10 00:02 | Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.33 | $57.75 |
| 04-09 22:13 | Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $482.23 |
| 04-09 22:12 | Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $118.69 |
| 04-09 19:33 | Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $548.06 |
| 04-09 19:14 | Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $608.16 |
| 04-09 09:54 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? | SELL | 0.64 | $181.76 |
| 04-09 09:52 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? | SELL | 0.64 | $479.36 |
| 04-09 09:51 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? | SELL | 0.64 | $445.44 |
| 04-09 09:48 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? | SELL | 0.64 | $337.92 |
| 04-08 01:08 | Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? | BUY | 0.66 | $1.5k |
| 04-07 21:00 | Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? | BUY | 0.109 | $155.22 |
| 03-31 03:34 | Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2026-04-18? | SELL | 0.13 | $23.14 |