0x9fcc916163d76d053042a231998ad0eacce3aefc
- Realised P&L
- $7.24
- Volume
- $65.00
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $21.29
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar11.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration34.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.835 | $7.31 | +$5.12 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · Yes | 0.660 | 1.000 | $2.86 | +$0.97 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.780 | 0.900 | $2.53 | +$0.34 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.865 | $2.37 | +$0.18 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.730 | $2.19 | +$0.00 |
| Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.655 | $2.11 | −$0.08 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.315 | $1.92 | −$0.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.03at 0.420Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 31?
- +$1.24at 0.640Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?
- +$1.13at 0.660Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$0.94at 0.700Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.48at 0.820S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 10:15 | Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.6599999578 | $2.19 |
| 08-05 09:28 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999145 | $2.19 |
| 08-05 00:58 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.6499999406 | $2.19 |
| 08-04 16:55 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $2.19 |
| 08-04 08:41 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.19 |
| 08-04 00:41 | Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.5599999284 | $2.19 |
| 08-03 16:39 | Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | BUY | 0.6799999503 | $2.19 |
| 08-03 08:39 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 3? | BUY | 0.8199999476 | $2.19 |
| 08-02 21:05 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.7799999288 | $2.19 |
| 08-02 11:53 | Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.7 | $2.19 |
| 08-02 00:51 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.19 |
| 08-01 16:27 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.6599999651 | $1.89 |
| 08-01 03:12 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 19:10 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 11:09 | Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 31? | BUY | 0.42 | $1.47 |