ExcaIibur
0x9fa8614cf56a2b39b0586e5ffcc8598d7bac593a
- Realised P&L
- $-87.39
- Volume
- $252.6k
- Markets traded
- 94
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded94
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$904.68at 0.839US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
- +$792.48at 0.956Iran leadership change by July 31?
- +$688.83at 0.913Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
- +$662.71at 0.953Iran leadership change by August 31?
- +$580.25at 0.958President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 15:24 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.006 | $1.36 |
| 08-21 14:34 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $35.00 |
| 08-21 11:29 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 08-20 17:23 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.82 | $1.6k |
| 08-19 13:43 | NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? | SELL | 0.85 | $365.41 |
| 08-19 11:32 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $376.00 |
| 08-19 11:18 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9296226344 | $492.69 |
| 08-19 11:16 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9165206818 | $425.87 |
| 08-19 11:01 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9468096004 | $2.5k |
| 08-19 10:56 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9192138566 | $1.9k |
| 08-18 22:50 | Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week? | BUY | 0.41 | $2.05 |
| 08-18 03:26 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.0406987787 | $10.00 |
| 08-17 10:45 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.2983093667 | $89.49 |
| 08-16 07:54 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? | BUY | 0.021 | $0.11 |
| 08-14 08:49 | Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? | BUY | 0.8506020099 | $230.22 |