Naropoly
0x9f83f83bdfc209c6fade8a2c77ea9667e9176cd9
- Realised P&L
- $26.4k
- Volume
- $2.98M
- Markets traded
- 948
- Open portfolio
- $38.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded948
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.2kat 0.750Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
- +$3.5kat 0.731Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$3.3kat 0.888US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$3.1kat 0.677Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?
- +$1.8kat 0.881MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 18:54 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.923 | $92.30 |
| 09-17 18:48 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? | SELL | 0.996 | $118.58 |
| 09-17 17:19 | Will Hungary win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | BUY | 0.986 | $42.02 |
| 09-17 17:09 | Will Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | BUY | 0.7064417346 | $103.12 |
| 09-17 06:59 | Will United States of America win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | BUY | 0.28 | $28.00 |
| 09-17 06:35 | Will United States of America win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | BUY | 0.27 | $12.42 |
| 09-17 06:35 | Will Turkiye win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | BUY | 0.991 | $19.55 |
| 09-15 15:08 | Will Armenia win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | BUY | 0.9827223893 | $205.81 |
| 09-15 14:08 | Will Turkiye win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | BUY | 0.9891486161 | $250.52 |
| 09-15 14:06 | Will Uzbekistan win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | BUY | 0.78 | $151.74 |
| 09-15 13:31 | Will France win the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament? | BUY | 0.9836088951 | $200.00 |
| 09-14 19:36 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.83 | $83.00 |
| 09-14 07:15 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.92 | $184.00 |
| 09-12 15:48 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-12? | BUY | 0.91 | $90.09 |
| 09-09 18:16 | Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 30? | BUY | 0.9683860232 | $300.00 |