MrMelonHead
0x9f66aa958734d9d5af35f5f19a276d23e84f3a50
- Realised P&L
- $11.7k
- Volume
- $2.87M
- Markets traded
- 2,475
- Open portfolio
- $24.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,475
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration15.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration6.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.4kat 0.911Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
- +$2.7kat 0.962Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
- +$2.7kat 0.347Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?
- +$2.4kat 0.598Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?
- +$2.2kat 0.401US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 18:34 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad? | BUY | 0.0866533863 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 12:35 | Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31? | BUY | 0.661802582 | $200.00 |
| 11-01 12:17 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8916538965 | $400.00 |
| 11-01 12:15 | Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0017458625 | $1.05 |
| 11-01 12:13 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.0309999999 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 12:09 | Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999998 | $300.00 |
| 11-01 12:09 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $300.00 |
| 11-01 12:08 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.8199999967 | $200.00 |
| 11-01 12:07 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999994 | $300.00 |
| 11-01 12:06 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $300.00 |
| 11-01 12:06 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8299999998 | $300.00 |
| 11-01 12:06 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999998 | $200.00 |
| 11-01 12:05 | Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999995 | $300.00 |
| 11-01 11:56 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3809999878 | $10.00 |
| 11-01 11:56 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3799999999 | $77.00 |