carlos484
0x9e7296fc4776144f60db9a5943ff2051696599c4
- Realised P&L
- $51.5k
- Volume
- $847.5k
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $194.5k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? · No | 0.875 | 0.885 | $60.0k | +$707.57 |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.769 | 0.795 | $32.0k | +$1.0k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.735 | $30.6k | +$619.00 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.765 | $26.9k | +$1.9k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes | 0.788 | 0.992 | $25.0k | +$5.1k |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.725 | $19.9k | −$136.93 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET · Up | 0.701 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| France vs. England: Team to Win · France | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.5k |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET · Up | 0.309 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$28.2kat 0.752US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
- +$23.0kat 0.784US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
- +$12.0kat 0.619Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$6.1kat 0.901US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?
- +$4.5kat 0.851Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 05:06 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $63.21 |
| 11-02 02:49 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $209.84 |
| 11-02 01:21 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8860228649 | $10.0k |
| 11-01 19:29 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7361431106 | $5.0k |
| 11-01 17:20 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $5.0k |
| 11-01 17:16 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8617130094 | $5.0k |
| 11-01 16:53 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1000.00 |
| 11-01 16:51 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.752016577 | $5.0k |
| 11-01 16:50 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.749952753 | $10.0k |
| 11-01 16:22 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.993 | $7.0k |
| 11-01 16:10 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.865734974 | $20.0k |
| 11-01 11:41 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.73 | $10.0k |
| 11-01 11:13 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.73 | $10.0k |
| 11-01 11:11 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $10.0k |
| 11-01 11:10 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $20.0k |