PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Frieren68

0x9e455413b57a792dfd92032f9a7a9fb282803662

Realised P&L
$8.7k
Volume
$771.0k
Markets traded
1,576
Open portfolio
$8.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded1,576
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration20.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration6.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December? · No0.7800.760$496.84$13.16
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · No0.8100.905$491.60+$51.61
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.7390.805$466.44+$38.60
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No0.4440.781$457.08+$197.23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August? · No0.9450.840$444.37$55.63
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.3470.835$391.32+$228.80
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.5100.545$384.71+$24.71
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.7440.925$351.45+$68.79
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? · No0.3960.705$311.28+$136.28
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? · Yes0.7740.755$308.65$7.72
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August? · No0.9750.990$304.67+$4.67
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.3T by August 31? · No0.8580.820$286.79$13.21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August? · No0.7660.555$275.02$104.68
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,800 (HIGH) in December? · No0.2610.390$273.13+$90.18
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.4610.805$261.81+$111.81

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-01 22:52US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?BUY0.6727674136$200.00
08-01 22:52US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?BUY0.89$200.00
08-01 22:51US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?BUY0.9689999999$200.00
08-01 19:19Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?BUY0.9748543567$100.00
08-01 19:19Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?BUY0.9748088887$200.00
08-01 19:18Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in August?BUY0.9719856568$200.00
08-01 17:07Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.3T by August 31?BUY0.8600955677$200.00
08-01 17:07Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.3T by August 31?BUY0.8531754487$100.00
08-01 16:59Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in August?BUY0.9346672568$200.00
07-31 23:03Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?BUY0.9450695719$300.00
07-31 17:45Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?BUY0.7898918459$179.70
07-31 17:45Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in August?BUY0.2790730988$10.00
07-31 17:44Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?SELL0.998$188.28
07-31 17:38Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?BUY0.5630996815$120.00
07-31 17:35Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in August?BUY0.9452736317$200.00