PolyBot

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Traders

Moond

0x9dfe2f73d3c988a9d69df8fa0beb85651340b3dd

Realised P&L
$159.7k
Volume
$6.84M
Markets traded
2,102
Open portfolio
$90.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded2,102
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration10.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration17.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.5000.512$15.4k+$375.00
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No0.5000.487$14.6k$375.00
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No0.9090.973$12.8k+$827.03
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No0.8580.895$8.8k+$367.23
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.8490.972$7.8k+$982.00
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.6820.840$7.2k+$1.4k
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.8550.895$7.2k+$320.10
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.7350.855$7.0k+$985.95
Iran leadership change by September 30? · No0.8700.983$2.9k+$339.00
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2026? · No0.7540.955$2.9k+$610.80
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.4300.595$1.7k+$464.40
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No0.6700.750$1.3k+$139.04
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.3800.125$624.99$1.3k
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? · No0.8600.973$358.63+$41.65
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? · No0.4600.355$24.33$7.20

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-13 14:14Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?BUY0.55$11.00
08-13 14:12Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?BUY0.47$280.58
08-13 12:54Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?BUY0.7$183.75
08-13 12:10Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?BUY0.7$14.00
08-13 12:08Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?BUY0.4272413793$495.60
08-13 12:03US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?BUY0.24$12.74
08-10 17:03Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?BUY0.66$685.99
08-10 14:12Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?BUY0.6394360902$340.18
08-10 12:09Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?BUY0.975$1.6k
08-10 10:49Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?BUY0.6$168.00
08-09 12:19Iran leadership change by December 31?BUY0.79$2.6k
08-09 12:17Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.7820942255$532.54
08-08 15:54US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.86$171.99
08-07 20:44US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?SELL0.16$80.00
08-06 16:17Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?BUY0.11$111.46