SAPA9588
0x9ddcb819e97bb16361e5cdb594c900989723f21c
- Realised P&L
- $-25.5k
- Volume
- $547.5k
- Markets traded
- 418
- Open portfolio
- $6.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded418
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration49.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.8kat 0.787Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$2.9kat 0.943Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$2.3kat 0.658Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$2.1kat 0.685Will Olympique Marseille win on 2025-09-30?
- +$1.3kat 0.919Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 18:53 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5799999992 | $15.00 |
| 10-31 18:52 | FC Bayern München vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5 | SELL | 0.223912413 | $15.44 |
| 10-31 18:34 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999993 | $528.00 |
| 10-31 18:34 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $528.36 |
| 10-31 17:26 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5799999924 | $43.00 |
| 10-31 17:25 | FC Bayern München vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.5799999959 | $40.00 |
| 10-31 17:24 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $84.00 |
| 10-29 04:33 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5888262846 | $673.00 |
| 10-29 04:32 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $700.00 |
| 10-29 04:28 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5799999999 | $2.7k |
| 10-29 04:27 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7288315553 | $2.7k |
| 10-27 02:15 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9433587153 | $6.5k |
| 10-26 00:04 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.7149999958 | $88.85 |
| 10-26 00:03 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.004 | $89.73 |
| 10-20 20:15 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-20? | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $4.00 |