Granddaughter
0x9db3ff59e5c13760a444a2fec13a35a23af21d38
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $126.7k
- Markets traded
- 508
- Open portfolio
- $210.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded508
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.327 | 0.573 | $117.67 | +$50.46 |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.345 | $89.44 | −$34.93 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.100 | $3.01 | −$3.61 |
| Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.224 | 0.013 | $0.45 | −$7.26 |
| Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.230 | $0.33 | −$0.12 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$0.90 |
| Will Leavitt say "Hormuz" or "Strait" during the next White House Press Briefing? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$152.23at 0.809Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
- +$124.21at 0.788Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
- +$109.20at 0.859US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$88.68at 0.995MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$86.09at 0.382Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 21:38 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.47 | $2.97 |
| 09-21 21:33 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.523 | $123.51 |
| 08-19 07:47 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.327 | $67.21 |
| 08-12 16:59 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? | SELL | 0.1292023082 | $19.03 |
| 08-12 16:58 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? | SELL | 0.111 | $49.05 |
| 08-12 14:56 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? | BUY | 0.015 | $8.40 |
| 08-09 17:31 | Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by fire? | SELL | 0.701156738 | $36.37 |
| 08-09 17:30 | Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by fire? | SELL | 0.88 | $17.60 |
| 08-08 22:26 | Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by magic? | SELL | 0.48 | $13.92 |
| 08-08 21:10 | Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by lava? | SELL | 0.9 | $7.55 |
| 08-08 21:07 | Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by lava? | SELL | 0.8416733206 | $48.49 |
| 08-08 20:54 | Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Team Jenz (BO3) - EPL Masters Group A | SELL | 0.49 | $10.25 |
| 08-08 20:40 | Will Kai or Speed be eliminated by the void? | SELL | 0.56 | $8.88 |
| 08-08 19:09 | Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Team Jenz (BO3) - EPL Masters Group A | BUY | 0.48 | $24.64 |
| 08-08 19:06 | Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Team Jenz (BO3) - EPL Masters Group A | BUY | 0.58 | $11.84 |