jiangdong
0x9d76086f583ebbd52b9fb50f83f9384b15d5ae3d
- Realised P&L
- $1.23
- Volume
- $6.4k
- Markets traded
- 90
- Open portfolio
- $15.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded90
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $13.29 | −$0.01 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · No | 0.959 | 0.979 | $1.33 | +$0.03 |
| Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.645 | $1.31 | −$0.11 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 16 to September 23, 2025? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 18? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.94at 0.540Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan
- +$0.64at 0.788Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
- +$0.45at 0.790Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
- +$0.31at 0.998Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
- +$0.31at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 11:07 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.30 |
| 10-18 10:04 | Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6999998028 | $1.42 |
| 09-21 13:27 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.9949999974 | $11.70 |
| 09-21 13:22 | Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage | BUY | 0.7799999934 | $2.37 |
| 08-28 12:43 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.9979999366 | $14.00 |
| 07-23 07:35 | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $14.00 |
| 06-09 10:24 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? | BUY | 0.999 | $156.00 |
| 05-31 09:06 | Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 05-30 08:05 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? | BUY | 0.999 | $89.00 |
| 05-30 07:58 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 05-30 07:55 | Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $54.00 |
| 05-27 09:21 | Will MiniMax have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 09:21 | Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 09:21 | Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 05-27 09:21 | Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.994 | $1.00 |