PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

TomAura

0x9d3ad15383c2ffaf74f771b44882987184ebb29a

Realised P&L
$-434.95
Volume
$10.4k
Markets traded
213
Open portfolio
$125.81

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-4.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded213
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration15.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration40.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? · No0.9000.915$50.83+$0.83
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by December 31? · Yes0.4200.415$24.70−$0.30
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.7100.705$14.89−$0.11
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.0640.048$14.79−$5.21
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in November? · Yes0.4800.465$10.66−$0.34
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.4050.403$9.94−$0.06
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Group Stage · Team Yandex0.6400.000$0.00−$10.00
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - The International Group Stage · Aurora0.4500.000$0.00−$2.00
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffs · Iron Wing0.5300.000$0.00−$2.70
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner · LGD Gaming0.4500.000$0.00−$5.00
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs · Aurora0.4100.000$0.00−$3.00
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner · Team Liquid0.4600.000$0.00−$10.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET · Up0.7500.000$0.00−$1.00
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Group Stage · HULIGANI0.0800.000$0.00−$1.00
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage · Team Falcons0.4500.000$0.00−$5.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 19:49Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.064253471$20.00
11-01 18:41Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?SELL0.33$4.72
11-01 17:40Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ETSELL0.12$5.36
11-01 17:33Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ETBUY0.5599999919$25.00
11-01 17:26Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ETBUY0.7599999964$25.00
11-01 17:23Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ETSELL0.42$4.67
11-01 17:19Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ETBUY0.449999964$5.00
11-01 17:15Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ETBUY0.699999972$5.00
11-01 17:13Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ETBUY0.942086473$100.00
11-01 17:11Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?BUY0.404999984$10.00
11-01 17:06Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ETBUY0.85$25.00
11-01 17:052026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseBUY0.7099999853$15.00
11-01 17:05Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.3499999825$5.00
11-01 17:03Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by December 31?BUY0.4199999966$25.00
11-01 17:01US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?BUY0.8999999928$50.00