PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

FrozenTomato

0x9d06e96a2ee9cc7020488789448357dd2961c4e8

Realised P&L
$-541.63
Volume
$238.7k
Markets traded
507
Open portfolio
$2.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded507
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration43.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration15.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No0.9000.925$398.68+$10.83
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.8980.875$177.25$4.73
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.8370.840$161.24+$0.47
Yoon out of custody before 2027? · No0.9110.934$156.52+$3.91
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · No0.8380.735$155.11$21.84
Will Marat Kambolov win the 2026 South Ossetia presidential elections? · Yes0.9670.972$113.13+$0.59
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? · No0.9130.945$112.71+$3.82
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? · No0.9440.958$68.90+$0.95
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · No0.8280.865$63.12+$2.70
Will the African Democratic Congress (ADC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election? · No0.9300.915$62.40$1.02
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · No0.6660.639$62.16$2.55
Will Solomon Olamilekan Adeola win the 2027 Ogun State gubernatorial election? · Yes0.7790.765$59.53$1.13
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? · No0.9760.975$58.09$0.09
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.8940.870$57.38$1.63
Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections? · Yes0.9830.947$52.75$2.02

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 21:38Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?SELL0.74$0.05
09-17 21:32Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.99$44.36
09-17 21:30Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.99$42.19
09-17 20:47Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?SELL0.72$0.14
09-17 20:43Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?SELL0.73$1.55
09-17 20:43Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?SELL0.73$7.81
09-17 20:23Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?BUY0.73$12.15
09-17 20:15Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?SELL0.77$1.51
09-17 20:15Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?SELL0.77$1.99
09-17 20:14Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?SELL0.85$0.04
09-17 19:35Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?SELL0.92$1.93
09-17 19:33Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?BUY0.968$10.81
09-17 18:55Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?SELL0.93$0.04
09-17 18:53Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?SELL0.93$0.04
09-17 18:53Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?SELL0.93$0.03