JoeBlack01
0x9ca119b8cd7bdb890aecf1ff3b0f6e3a45cc13b5
- Realised P&L
- $89.4k
- Volume
- $9.42M
- Markets traded
- 992
- Open portfolio
- $105.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded992
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration38.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.3kat 0.535Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
- +$9.4kat 0.562Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- +$7.8kat 0.608Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?
- +$7.1kat 0.202Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?
- +$6.2kat 0.804Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 12:38 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.81 | $486.00 |
| 10-17 12:32 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.3k |
| 09-30 07:16 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.72133387 | $721.33 |
| 09-30 06:20 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1065014403 | $41.04 |
| 09-30 06:20 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.123741311 | $85.27 |
| 09-29 20:05 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1375432524 | $53.00 |
| 09-29 20:04 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1784940962 | $123.00 |
| 09-29 18:05 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2849633325 | $336.00 |
| 09-29 17:46 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2629755333 | $56.00 |
| 09-29 13:16 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3604439877 | $300.00 |
| 09-29 13:15 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3251871499 | $600.00 |
| 09-29 13:12 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2631107401 | $379.00 |
| 09-28 20:55 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9598646591 | $1000.00 |
| 09-28 20:36 | Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9549999999 | $253.00 |
| 09-28 20:34 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $494.00 |