elprophet
0x9bf69b0ccedd2756c90dcd8d3e08aa58d2bf77d8
- Realised P&L
- $-725.86
- Volume
- $21.6k
- Markets traded
- 124
- Open portfolio
- $631.74
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded124
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$436.56at 0.320Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$300.67at 0.408Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?
- +$172.45at 0.207Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?
- +$136.16at 0.468Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
- +$132.25at 0.368No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-29 19:57 | Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? | BUY | 0.1 | $2.00 |
| 01-29 19:55 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | BUY | 0.189 | $1.89 |
| 12-19 10:16 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $9.30 |
| 12-11 14:20 | Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.037 | $1.00 |
| 12-11 14:16 | Will Jensen Huang be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? | BUY | 0.04 | $1.20 |
| 12-11 14:12 | Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? | BUY | 0.3 | $6.00 |
| 12-09 19:54 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.05 | $1.50 |
| 12-09 18:31 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 12-09 18:27 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 12-09 18:26 | AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.12 |
| 12-03 10:26 | Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? | BUY | 0.29 | $8.70 |
| 12-03 10:23 | Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? | BUY | 0.024 | $0.83 |
| 12-03 10:19 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? | BUY | 0.021 | $1.47 |
| 12-03 10:18 | Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)? | BUY | 0.38 | $18.24 |
| 12-03 09:46 | Maduro out in 2025? | BUY | 0.84 | $84.00 |