0x9bede9d7d2dab0db41553af24e7cb0ee7c951484
0x9bede9d7d2dab0db41553af24e7cb0ee7c951484
- Realised P&L
- $2.24
- Volume
- $401.09
- Markets traded
- 114
- Open portfolio
- $3.35
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded114
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.215 | $1.02 | −$0.98 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $201 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.650 | 0.635 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Meta (META) Q3 average price per ad growth 15%+? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.230 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18? · No | 0.330 | 0.155 | $0.47 | −$0.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.03at 0.227Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?
- +$6.63at 0.237Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
- +$4.18at 0.331Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$3.13at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 03:58 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $201 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 19:58 | Meta (META) Q3 average price per ad growth 15%+? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 11:57 | Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 03:50 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.2149999903 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 19:39 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 18? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 10:56 | United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 23:44 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.3189999225 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 13:55 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.4179999122 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 05:54 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 21:53 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 13:27 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.6909997879 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 05:04 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 21:04 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 01:03 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 15:55 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |