0x9b85132ffff8a6ff96db5099c440ec1c24d789d1
0x9b85132ffff8a6ff96db5099c440ec1c24d789d1
- Realised P&L
- $240.43
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $44.05
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample37 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)21.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration47.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.332 | $20.69 | +$5.11 |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.059 | 0.083 | $8.39 | +$2.39 |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.018 | $4.27 | +$1.27 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.022 | 0.018 | $3.27 | −$0.73 |
| Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.235 | $2.94 | −$0.06 |
| OPEC dissolves in 2026? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.038 | $2.89 | −$0.11 |
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.006 | $1.35 | −$3.65 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.013 | $0.26 | −$4.74 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$162.66at 0.166Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
- +$84.00at 0.160Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$45.26at 0.185Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?
- +$40.45at 0.110Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$19.34at 0.178Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 05:45 | Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.24 | $3.00 |
| 09-25 15:09 | OPEC dissolves in 2026? | BUY | 0.04 | $3.00 |
| 09-25 15:02 | No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0241294109 | $5.00 |
| 09-25 14:59 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | BUY | 0.25 | $15.58 |
| 09-25 14:57 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? | SELL | 0.9342092664 | $199.82 |
| 09-12 09:39 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $4.00 |
| 09-11 11:36 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.0589999996 | $6.00 |
| 09-11 11:33 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? | BUY | 0.2789999989 | $24.01 |
| 08-02 20:56 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? | BUY | 0.0782234774 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 20:49 | Trump out as President by August 31? | BUY | 0.01 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 20:40 | Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0129999958 | $3.00 |
| 08-02 20:40 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0219999947 | $4.00 |
| 07-09 21:25 | France vs. Morocco: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | BUY | 0.16 | $3.00 |
| 07-06 18:59 | Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 Spain? | BUY | 0.1199999748 | $4.00 |
| 07-04 21:45 | Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 3 France? | BUY | 0.1099999685 | $3.00 |