0x9b84a7890c4e0229018df2466efda7eddc4cc44b
- Realised P&L
- $-1.48
- Volume
- $97.95
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $19.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)53.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $75 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 1.000 | $5.41 | +$3.41 |
| Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? · Yes | 0.450 | 1.000 | $4.44 | +$2.44 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.650 | 0.895 | $2.75 | +$0.75 |
| Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? · No | 0.770 | 1.000 | $2.60 | +$0.60 |
| Will USA Today (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.645 | $1.97 | +$0.38 |
| Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.355 | $1.06 | −$0.23 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.400 | 0.175 | $0.88 | −$1.13 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.89at 0.460Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
- +$1.83at 0.390Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of July 27 2026?
- +$1.80at 0.410Will Trump say "Grocery" or "Dairy" during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.47at 0.520Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.13at 0.630Will Yum Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 08:46 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 08:39 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $75 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999112 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 00:24 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 16:24 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? | BUY | 0.7699997035 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 07:57 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 23:19 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 15:18 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 07:04 | Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.5699999607 | $2.03 |
| 07-31 23:03 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? | BUY | 0.4499999212 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 15:02 | Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | BUY | 0.43 | $1.29 |
| 07-31 06:12 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-30 12:20 | Will USA Today (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.5199998953 | $1.59 |
| 07-29 23:38 | Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.08 |
| 07-28 20:09 | Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.5199998953 | $1.59 |
| 07-27 23:23 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |