neophiliatic
0x9aeb5105ae40f5eed241da6749fdbe9508459058
- Realised P&L
- $18.21
- Volume
- $3.4k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $439.67
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration31.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.205 | $255.93 | −$243.01 |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.805 | $94.84 | +$20.62 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.720 | 0.635 | $88.90 | −$11.90 |
| Will Partido Popular win 36-39 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.48 |
| Will House and Senate pass funding bill by November 30? · No | 0.012 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.40 |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.31at 0.710Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
- +$13.84at 0.634Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 November 10-16?
- +$11.77at 0.570Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$11.20at 0.460Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 14?
- +$10.38at 0.800Will Partido Popular win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 20:10 | Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.37 | $6.99 |
| 09-29 20:09 | Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.32 | $16.00 |
| 09-29 20:09 | Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.31 | $6.82 |
| 09-29 20:09 | Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.3 | $15.00 |
| 09-26 11:12 | Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.36 | $238.47 |
| 09-23 08:48 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.72 | $100.80 |
| 09-10 22:10 | Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.47 | $54.05 |
| 09-10 21:43 | Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.49 | $151.86 |
| 09-10 21:43 | Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.48 | $7.30 |
| 05-26 17:53 | Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.629999998 | $74.22 |
| 04-12 19:56 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | SELL | 0.996 | $74.22 |
| 04-11 22:10 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.7099999995 | $52.91 |
| 03-18 21:10 | Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? | SELL | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 03-15 19:59 | Will Partido Popular win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election? | BUY | 0.8 | $41.53 |
| 03-15 19:58 | Will Partido Popular win 36-39 seats in the 2026 Castilla y León regional election? | BUY | 0.1 | $4.48 |