ysjbz
0x9ac81f3ca05c3078e5f3175365c6330c9adc6c81
- Realised P&L
- $-14.60
- Volume
- $258.32
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $41.67
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)89.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.957 | 0.978 | $23.50 | +$0.49 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.905 | $3.71 | +$0.51 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 12? · Yes | 0.700 | 1.000 | $3.01 | +$0.90 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · Yes | 0.570 | 0.795 | $2.79 | +$0.79 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026? · No | 0.831 | 0.939 | $2.26 | +$0.26 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 14? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.615 | $2.18 | −$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on October 14? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.505 | $2.14 | −$0.06 |
| Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 13? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.605 | $2.08 | −$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 19? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Raptors vs. Hornets · Raptors | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.20 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.30 |
| Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? · No | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.71at 0.824Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
- +$1.67at 0.562Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 1?
- +$1.10at 0.820Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
- +$0.91at 0.870Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$0.83at 0.750Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 09:55 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on October 14? | BUY | 0.5199999055 | $2.20 |
| 10-12 09:55 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 14? | BUY | 0.6199999098 | $2.20 |
| 10-12 09:53 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 12? | BUY | 0.6999999336 | $2.11 |
| 10-12 09:53 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 13? | BUY | 0.6099999913 | $2.10 |
| 07-28 10:06 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.21 | $3.35 |
| 07-28 10:05 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.49 | $3.84 |
| 07-18 11:13 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9609999735 | $16.00 |
| 07-18 11:13 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9479999924 | $2.00 |
| 07-18 11:12 | Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 19? | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |
| 06-30 15:08 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9479999962 | $7.00 |
| 06-30 15:07 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.9399999987 | $15.00 |
| 06-30 15:06 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 1? | BUY | 0.55 | $2.10 |
| 06-30 15:05 | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.4499999022 | $2.30 |
| 06-30 15:04 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | SELL | 0.999 | $15.89 |
| 05-31 14:44 | Will the highest temperature in Denver be 76°F or higher on June 1? | BUY | 0.96799984 | $3.00 |