makower
0x9a5aed2caacfdc5dd4af5553adaa8b7d08a5779c
- Realised P&L
- $-3.2k
- Volume
- $448.0k
- Markets traded
- 560
- Open portfolio
- $256.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded560
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.745 | 0.175 | $173.33 | −$562.47 |
| Will Bernie endorse Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? · No | 0.974 | 0.896 | $54.66 | −$4.76 |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.325 | $10.07 | −$6.99 |
| Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? · No | 0.900 | 0.882 | $7.94 | −$0.16 |
| Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? · No | 0.880 | 1.000 | $5.00 | +$0.60 |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.920 | $3.68 | +$0.76 |
| Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.035 | $0.91 | −$15.47 |
| Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.528 | 0.555 | $0.56 | +$0.03 |
| Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.055 | $0.06 | −$0.76 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$455.67at 0.390Will "Acceptance Speech" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes?
- +$357.85at 0.150Will Leavitt say "Obamacare" during the next White House press briefing?
- +$249.38at 0.260Will Leavitt say "Baby" or "Pregnant" during the next White House press briefing?
- +$185.35at 0.230Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2025-12-20?
- +$155.04at 0.660Spread: Southern Illinois Salukis (-3.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-11 10:06 | Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $352.59 |
| 04-10 17:27 | Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $444.57 |
| 04-09 22:00 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.65 | $185.90 |
| 04-09 12:07 | Will Trump say "Witch" this week? (April 12) | SELL | 0.88 | $200.64 |
| 04-09 12:06 | Will Trump say "Witch" this week? (April 12) | SELL | 0.88 | $585.20 |
| 04-09 12:05 | Will Trump say "Witch" this week? (April 12) | SELL | 0.88 | $14.96 |
| 04-09 10:34 | Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | SELL | 0.22 | $204.16 |
| 04-08 15:15 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $194.48 |
| 04-07 16:08 | Will Trump say "Witch" this week? (April 12) | BUY | 0.75 | $682.50 |
| 04-07 13:36 | Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | BUY | 0.51 | $473.28 |
| 04-07 12:53 | Will Querétaro FC vs. FC Juárez end in a draw? | BUY | 0.73 | $577.43 |
| 03-31 07:39 | Will GERB-SDS win between 60-64 seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.73 | $1.1k |
| 03-31 03:16 | Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? | SELL | 0.56 | $328.72 |
| 03-30 13:39 | Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | SELL | 0.78 | $316.68 |
| 03-29 22:00 | Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $312.62 |