0x9A53feA9851a5D4508bAf3d0596A3FbE43f43A83-1762562404105
0x9a53fea9851a5d4508baf3d0596a3fbe43f43a83
- Realised P&L
- $-3.32
- Volume
- $7.1k
- Markets traded
- 113
- Open portfolio
- $8.85
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded113
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in October? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.506 | $2.41 | +$1.41 |
| Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.575 | $1.30 | −$0.01 |
| Will Yisrael Beiteinu be in the next Israeli government? · No | 0.460 | 0.465 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government? · No | 0.466 | 0.425 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.070 | $0.88 | −$0.13 |
| Will Israel election happen as scheduled? · No | 0.101 | 0.087 | $0.87 | −$0.13 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.055 | $0.79 | −$0.21 |
| Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.004 | $0.57 | −$0.43 |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.001 | $0.13 | −$1.88 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.50at 0.080Will Iran strike Lebanon in March?
- +$7.37at 0.235Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?
- +$3.32at 0.560Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
- +$3.12at 0.410Nothing Ever Happens: December
- +$2.76at 0.340Will Israel strike Gaza on January 8, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 15:44 | Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government? | BUY | 0.5799999203 | $1.31 |
| 10-11 18:38 | Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government? | BUY | 0.4660192727 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 18:38 | Will Yisrael Beiteinu be in the next Israeli government? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 18:38 | Will Israel election happen as scheduled? | BUY | 0.1009999908 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 18:37 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | BUY | 0.0699999965 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 18:37 | Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 19:55 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in October? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 19:55 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in October? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-04 14:20 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.12 |
| 08-27 23:56 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.004 | $1.14 |
| 07-09 16:56 | Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 05-04 16:42 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.00 |
| 05-04 14:44 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.00 |
| 05-01 13:50 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 04-29 11:26 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $0.29 |