0x99fcD0674322296E2a19114f816BCFEac9569658-1761791079464
0x99fcd0674322296e2a19114f816bcfeac9569658
- Realised P&L
- $-3.0k
- Volume
- $84.9k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.460Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
- +$1.0kat 0.490Bitcoin Up or Down on November 12?
- +$757.23at 0.129LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)
- +$385.00at 0.450England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$275.00at 0.607Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-13 05:01 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.45 | $315.00 |
| 04-23 14:01 | Will Elon Musk / X (Twitter) acquire TikTok? | BUY | 0.044 | $1.54 |
| 03-15 01:44 | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.992 | $749.95 |
| 01-09 15:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down on January 10? | BUY | 0.5 | $200.00 |
| 12-12 14:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down on December 13? | BUY | 0.49 | $98.00 |
| 11-08 14:27 | Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $26.91 |
| 11-06 01:49 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.7k |
| 11-06 01:31 | Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.043 | $21.50 |
| 11-01 03:56 | LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) | BUY | 0.1299999989 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 14:47 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7227722752 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 14:21 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.9709999036 | $9.56 |
| 10-30 13:41 | Will Stable launch a token in 2025? | BUY | 0.8118811841 | $10.00 |
| 10-30 13:36 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | BUY | 0.939 | $9.39 |
| 10-30 02:54 | No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.2999999925 | $20.00 |
| 10-30 02:52 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.6899999968 | $50.00 |