nightmare01
0x99e97b35f25d5a208716e8e5d1b8b295f809e2a7
- Realised P&L
- $-326.27
- Volume
- $6.8k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $248.12
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.795 | $111.97 | +$11.97 |
| Will Como win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.011 | $34.50 | +$4.50 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.116 | 0.102 | $30.34 | −$4.00 |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.165 | $26.40 | +$5.60 |
| Will Roma reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League Round of 16? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.415 | $23.94 | +$0.29 |
| Will Real Betis reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League Round of 16? · No | 0.520 | 0.330 | $12.69 | −$7.31 |
| Will Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season? · Yes | 0.082 | 0.069 | $8.28 | −$1.56 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? · Yes | 0.579 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.54 |
| Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-21? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$69.39at 0.268Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?
- +$52.11at 0.270Will FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
- +$6.82at 0.249Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21?
- +$4.06at 0.200Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
- +$-5.43at 0.410Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-23 11:21 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.0086009615 | $0.88 |
| 10-21 19:46 | Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-10-21? | BUY | 0.05 | $10.00 |
| 10-21 19:37 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21? | SELL | 0.36 | $24.73 |
| 10-21 19:26 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21? | BUY | 0.2399999977 | $16.49 |
| 10-21 19:14 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.3109090909 | $17.10 |
| 10-21 18:21 | Will FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2599999994 | $18.55 |
| 10-21 18:17 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $13.10 |
| 10-16 14:56 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.0377647059 | $6.42 |
| 10-13 20:57 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.7460753532 | $76.04 |
| 10-13 20:50 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13? | SELL | 0.11 | $80.36 |
| 10-13 20:13 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.5399999959 | $31.89 |
| 10-13 20:13 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.5299999994 | $200.00 |
| 10-13 20:11 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.5791672554 | $100.00 |
| 10-13 20:08 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.709999998 | $100.00 |
| 10-13 20:03 | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.3399999989 | $100.00 |