BondSolo
0x9995d54ecf4eab96e1bdfcf519b12c447e28d0d3
- Realised P&L
- $2.0k
- Volume
- $283.1k
- Markets traded
- 316
- Open portfolio
- $4.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded316
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.635 | $1.3k | +$410.00 |
| Will there be no Hormuz agreement? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.831 | $1.2k | −$26.60 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.056 | 0.064 | $426.29 | +$56.02 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No | 0.180 | 0.855 | $342.00 | +$270.00 |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · No | 0.480 | 0.545 | $272.50 | +$32.50 |
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? · Yes | 0.481 | 0.543 | $179.35 | +$20.66 |
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.635 | 0.805 | $177.83 | +$37.60 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes | 0.286 | 0.190 | $108.88 | −$55.04 |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.330 | 0.280 | $66.43 | −$11.86 |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.110 | $4.91 | −$35.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.240Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?
- +$1.0kat 0.410Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
- +$932.19at 0.379US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$834.20at 0.190Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
- +$731.53at 0.457US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 12:12 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.82 | $1.3k |
| 09-07 19:28 | Will Hunter Biden launch a coin by September 30? | BUY | 0.94 | $15.04 |
| 08-20 18:29 | Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $240.00 |
| 08-20 18:28 | Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | BUY | 0.4809090909 | $158.70 |
| 08-20 18:28 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | SELL | 0.6825028268 | $272.82 |
| 08-13 23:30 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $7.90 |
| 08-12 22:05 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $40.00 |
| 08-12 22:04 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13? | BUY | 0.999 | $100.00 |
| 08-12 21:51 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? | BUY | 0.1531428571 | $5.36 |
| 08-12 04:05 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $128.00 |
| 08-12 04:04 | Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5852175992 | $12.24 |
| 08-07 23:12 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.471 | $41.73 |
| 08-07 23:12 | Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | BUY | 0.471 | $39.93 |
| 08-06 18:37 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.26 | $195.00 |
| 08-06 14:33 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.33 | $78.30 |