Desmondo
0x995124fa5327c85e0287aec9be76bc6e7ecc8e1f
- Realised P&L
- $-10.92
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $15.99
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.962 | 0.989 | $10.28 | +$0.28 |
| Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.151 | $1.70 | +$0.70 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.480 | 0.705 | $1.47 | +$0.47 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.945 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.310 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.041 | $0.45 | −$0.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.81at 0.740US government shutdown Saturday?
- +$2.30at 0.440Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritz
- +$2.03at 0.330Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien
- +$1.86at 0.350Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?
- +$1.15at 0.520Mavericks vs. Bucks
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 01:15 | Will Trump visit Greenland by September 30? | BUY | 0.98 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 06:43 | Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | BUY | 0.088593577 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 04:57 | Israel military action against Lebanon on September 3? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 04:47 | Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999674 | $5.00 |
| 09-03 04:45 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 04-10 03:30 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.7099994391 | $1.00 |
| 04-05 22:10 | Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 04-05 22:09 | Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.949999525 | $1.00 |
| 04-05 22:08 | Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 04-05 22:05 | Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Valero Texas Open? | BUY | 0.9489999763 | $1.00 |
| 03-27 04:40 | Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 03-26 02:52 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.4799998272 | $1.00 |
| 03-26 02:51 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.84 | $1.00 |
| 03-08 06:27 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.962 | $10.00 |
| 03-06 20:55 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.5599998432 | $1.00 |