AChad
0x98d13dfa17ade5cc64d75a409bc3d1150ba6ed25
- Realised P&L
- $2.4k
- Volume
- $26.3k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $5.4k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$609.37at 0.527Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?
- +$505.04at 0.295Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?
- +$388.07at 0.598Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?
- +$340.37at 0.265Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?
- +$307.99at 0.612Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 23:45 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | BUY | 0.4199999977 | $100.00 |
| 08-03 23:44 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31? | BUY | 0.2440529185 | $50.00 |
| 08-03 23:44 | Will Russia enter Matiasheve by August 31? | BUY | 0.6688429009 | $100.00 |
| 08-02 23:10 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | BUY | 0.4599999997 | $250.00 |
| 08-02 23:09 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | BUY | 0.4499999989 | $181.00 |
| 07-31 23:38 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7572720677 | $219.19 |
| 07-31 23:35 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2704887295 | $49.00 |
| 07-31 23:34 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.64 | $109.29 |
| 07-31 18:31 | Will Russia enter Matiasheve by August 31? | BUY | 0.7102926653 | $60.00 |
| 07-30 23:27 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | BUY | 0.4599999987 | $145.00 |
| 07-30 22:10 | Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31? | BUY | 0.2298221591 | $70.00 |
| 07-30 22:08 | Will Russia enter Matiasheve by August 31? | BUY | 0.7070445502 | $40.00 |
| 07-30 22:08 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2282126083 | $55.00 |
| 07-30 22:06 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30? | BUY | 0.7694800806 | $444.00 |
| 07-30 22:05 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | BUY | 0.4597489771 | $550.00 |