AChad
0x98d13dfa17ade5cc64d75a409bc3d1150ba6ed25
- Realised P&L
- $2.7k
- Volume
- $29.4k
- Markets traded
- 52
- Open portfolio
- $3.8k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded52
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$620.42at 0.740Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30?
- +$609.37at 0.527Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?
- +$505.05at 0.295Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?
- +$388.07at 0.598Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?
- +$340.37at 0.265Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 00:15 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $155.00 |
| 10-05 00:13 | Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099999998 | $222.00 |
| 10-05 00:10 | Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31? | BUY | 0.4419642837 | $55.00 |
| 10-05 00:10 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.649999997 | $77.00 |
| 09-17 22:36 | Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31? | BUY | 0.5099999991 | $145.00 |
| 09-17 22:32 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999994 | $222.00 |
| 09-17 22:29 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7659743152 | $133.00 |
| 09-17 22:29 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3190473377 | $82.00 |
| 09-06 22:27 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1713829947 | $77.00 |
| 09-02 23:16 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on September 3? | BUY | 0.490773459 | $25.00 |
| 09-02 23:16 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on September 3? | BUY | 0.1506562965 | $20.00 |
| 09-02 23:14 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 4? | BUY | 0.0371887729 | $10.00 |
| 09-02 23:14 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 3? | BUY | 0.3505176737 | $15.00 |
| 09-02 23:07 | Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.959200071 | $297.34 |
| 08-03 23:45 | Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | BUY | 0.4199999977 | $100.00 |