0x97426fa80af66ec56e0b6cacc9bdff6c83ade412
- Realised P&L
- not known
- Volume
- not known
- Markets traded
- 96
- Open portfolio
- $33.09
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- Not knownEdge per dollar—
- No leaderboard entry for this wallet in the requested window.
- ClearMarkets traded96
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.581 | 0.432 | $17.59 | −$6.04 |
| Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.056 | $15.38 | −$81.60 |
| Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.050 | $0.12 | −$0.17 |
| Over $3B crypto hack value in 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$101.57 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$35.06at 0.372Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 3?
- +$30.22at 0.397Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 4?
- +$20.07at 0.275Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$15.00at 0.400Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?
- +$10.57at 0.048Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 00:48 | Will Xi leave the USA on September 24, 2026 or earlier? | BUY | 0.999 | $87.91 |
| 09-24 16:10 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.581 | $23.64 |
| 09-05 23:52 | Will AfD win 46-49 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.0393333333 | $1.77 |
| 09-05 23:51 | Will AfD win 46-49 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.0245766825 | $24.20 |
| 08-22 23:52 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 23? | BUY | 0.4499999921 | $20.00 |
| 08-17 18:20 | Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on August 17? | BUY | 0.999 | $44.95 |
| 08-17 16:14 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 18? | BUY | 0.6599999954 | $20.00 |
| 08-17 16:13 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 19? | SELL | 0.62 | $20.00 |
| 08-17 16:12 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 19? | BUY | 0.6199999981 | $20.00 |
| 08-05 13:34 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.6799999946 | $20.00 |
| 08-04 18:57 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.0779727096 | $20.00 |
| 08-04 18:55 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.1683168253 | $20.00 |
| 08-04 18:54 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on August 5? | BUY | 0.1699999941 | $20.00 |
| 08-04 13:34 | Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.98 | $50.88 |
| 08-04 11:21 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 4? | SELL | 0.204895 | $16.39 |