0x96F004Fcb1c69bC87d6eC83eAC769905DbD0E3b9-1774692057968
0x96f004fcb1c69bc87d6ec83eac769905dbd0e3b9
- Realised P&L
- $308.31
- Volume
- $9.3k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $124.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)93.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? · Yes | 0.512 | 0.395 | $79.00 | −$23.50 |
| Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? · Yes | 0.275 | 0.285 | $28.50 | +$1.00 |
| Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? · Yes | 0.089 | 0.061 | $6.15 | −$2.75 |
| Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.027 | $5.40 | +$4.20 |
| Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.025 | $2.31 | +$1.85 |
| Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.008 | $1.60 | −$0.20 |
| Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.012 | $1.20 | +$0.20 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026? · No | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$111.14at 0.644Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?
- +$88.79at 0.428Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?
- +$60.35at 0.787Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?
- +$16.80at 0.880Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026?
- +$15.40at 0.720Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 03:42 | Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.009 | $1.80 |
| 09-15 03:42 | Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.20 |
| 09-15 03:42 | Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.005 | $0.20 |
| 09-11 07:46 | Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.28 | $14.00 |
| 09-10 20:20 | Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | BUY | 0.089 | $5.34 |
| 09-10 20:16 | Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? | BUY | 0.6 | $30.00 |
| 07-14 01:23 | Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? | SELL | 0.981 | $98.10 |
| 07-13 14:23 | Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal? | BUY | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 07-13 08:27 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.50 |
| 07-12 17:16 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? | SELL | 0.94 | $65.79 |
| 06-16 09:49 | Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? | BUY | 0.65 | $8.51 |
| 06-15 10:44 | Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? | BUY | 0.6699999497 | $3.46 |
| 04-13 16:59 | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL | 0.976 | $97.60 |
| 04-10 06:45 | Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $8.84 |
| 04-10 06:15 | Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $11.80 |