0x96abb6060954f146738f86bb477b7ccfbe624135
- Realised P&L
- $317.45
- Volume
- $1.9k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $580.44
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar16.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration89.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? · Yes | 0.435 | 1.000 | $378.00 | +$213.45 |
| Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? · No | 0.512 | 1.000 | $110.00 | +$53.68 |
| Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.205 | $47.92 | −$45.59 |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.285 | $17.39 | −$2.75 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.488 | 0.165 | $13.70 | −$26.82 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.018 | $7.53 | −$32.65 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.065 | $5.92 | −$14.11 |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.88 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.29 |
| Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.89 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$187.20at 0.400Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?
- +$19.50at 0.650Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?
- +$1.60at 0.960Will $PUP receive a perp listing by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-02 02:38 | Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | BUY | 0.419 | $8.80 |
| 04-02 02:37 | Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | BUY | 0.42 | $8.82 |
| 04-02 02:37 | Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | BUY | 0.42 | $8.82 |
| 04-02 02:37 | Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | BUY | 0.42 | $8.82 |
| 04-02 02:37 | Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | BUY | 0.42 | $8.82 |
| 04-02 02:37 | Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | BUY | 0.42 | $8.82 |
| 04-02 02:37 | Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | BUY | 0.42 | $8.82 |
| 04-02 02:36 | Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | BUY | 0.43 | $9.03 |
| 04-02 02:36 | Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | BUY | 0.43 | $9.03 |
| 04-02 02:36 | Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | BUY | 0.43 | $9.03 |
| 04-02 02:36 | Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | BUY | 0.449 | $9.43 |
| 04-02 02:36 | Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | BUY | 0.44 | $9.24 |
| 04-02 02:36 | Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | BUY | 0.44 | $9.24 |
| 04-02 02:36 | Will Ausar Thompson lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | BUY | 0.45 | $9.45 |
| 04-02 01:59 | Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs? | BUY | 0.4 | $10.40 |