Perba
0x96a6b18c55ef4b817e456bf43fd4cb64b9893a08
- Realised P&L
- $-28.22
- Volume
- $20.1k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.998 | 0.998 | $899.55 | −$0.45 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 1? · Yes | 0.993 | 0.998 | $111.54 | +$0.54 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October? · No | 0.978 | 0.978 | $49.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October? · No | 0.977 | 0.970 | $49.62 | −$0.38 |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.970 | 0.997 | $20.55 | +$0.55 |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.959 | 0.984 | $15.39 | +$0.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.18at 0.890Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?
- +$5.11at 0.370Minnesota Twins sale announced before July?
- +$3.20at 0.610Bitcoin above $65,000 on June 28?
- +$2.13at 0.997Will the Cardinals win Super Bowl 2025?
- +$1.55at 0.660Will Bournemouth win on 2025-03-09?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 09:48 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $900.00 |
| 10-01 09:48 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October? | BUY | 0.9779999999 | $50.00 |
| 10-01 09:47 | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in October? | BUY | 0.9769999998 | $50.00 |
| 10-01 09:47 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 1? | BUY | 0.9931745019 | $111.00 |
| 07-18 19:22 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.986 | $877.00 |
| 07-18 19:22 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.985 | $400.00 |
| 04-05 19:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | BUY | 0.95 | $14.89 |
| 03-22 13:07 | Will UNI reach $8.00 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 03-22 13:07 | Will Hyperliquid reach $46 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $3.00 |
| 03-22 13:06 | Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | SELL | 0.998 | $776.43 |
| 03-22 13:06 | Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | BUY | 0.999 | $777.22 |
| 10-02 14:18 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | BUY | 0.95 | $3.00 |
| 10-02 14:18 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | BUY | 0.9849999967 | $3.00 |
| 10-02 14:18 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025? | BUY | 0.96 | $3.00 |
| 10-02 14:17 | Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | SELL | 0.002 | $9.33 |