A324252
0x960b975c28e34241644d283df9b13b35c1f64a03
- Realised P&L
- $-41.5k
- Volume
- $342.4k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $4.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-12.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.135 | $3.6k | −$937.53 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.040 | $359.53 | −$623.54 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? · No | 0.472 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.4k |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? · No | 0.599 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$282.73 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? · No | 0.856 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.5kat 0.586Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
- +$1.6kat 0.837Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
- +$969.07at 0.250Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
- +$814.21at 0.903Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
- +$243.38at 0.877Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-21 06:22 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1080068689 | $983.07 |
| 02-13 03:42 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.8999035326 | $2.8k |
| 02-13 02:39 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $114.20 |
| 02-13 02:24 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.8336988526 | $1.1k |
| 02-13 02:08 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.8923573671 | $1.3k |
| 02-13 02:05 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.9127866743 | $2.5k |
| 02-13 01:53 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.9418235486 | $317.32 |
| 02-13 01:46 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.9501907368 | $992.95 |
| 02-13 01:42 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.8106871182 | $3.1k |
| 02-13 01:41 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.8867314166 | $3.1k |
| 02-13 01:38 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7940736877 | $354.75 |
| 02-13 01:34 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.9605199808 | $579.99 |
| 02-13 01:19 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.9661264902 | $499.22 |
| 02-13 01:13 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.8464623392 | $1.4k |
| 02-13 01:12 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? | SELL | 0.9350478953 | $3.0k |