icariam06
0x95929ed92966ed5d29b47568191fe1c7e877a8fd
- Realised P&L
- $-4.5k
- Volume
- $818.8k
- Markets traded
- 3,680
- Open portfolio
- $1.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,680
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration31.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$76.30at 0.530Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 157m?
- +$75.67at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?
- +$62.47at 0.804Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$49.76at 0.944Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$43.94at 0.921Ethereum Up or Down - December 5, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 16:49 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.9536987952 | $316.63 |
| 09-17 16:48 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.9810166672 | $294.30 |
| 09-17 05:28 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $65.71 |
| 09-16 19:24 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.941 | $282.29 |
| 09-16 13:53 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 05:29 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.95550896 | $477.75 |
| 09-16 02:11 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $14.40 |
| 09-16 00:43 | Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $15.60 |
| 09-15 20:12 | Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $4.50 |
| 09-15 17:09 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $435.00 |
| 09-15 08:18 | Will the Republican Party win the IA-01 House seat? | SELL | 0.72 | $14.40 |
| 09-15 03:04 | Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $2.40 |
| 09-14 23:39 | Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.51 | $12.18 |
| 09-14 17:32 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8129197582 | $78.01 |
| 09-14 12:44 | Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat? | SELL | 0.4 | $8.00 |