skullyhoofd
0x953e1a5f7b933b246f7c1e611358897f8332465a
- Realised P&L
- $15.47
- Volume
- $15.4k
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $53.83
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.154 | $15.45 | −$19.55 |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.167 | 0.926 | $14.64 | +$12.00 |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.691 | 0.965 | $9.68 | +$2.74 |
| Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $2M before 2027? · Yes | 0.444 | 0.160 | $8.32 | −$14.78 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.055 | $4.13 | −$21.38 |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.022 | $0.88 | −$0.16 |
| Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $3M before 2027? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.154 | $0.73 | −$1.63 |
| No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$28.00 |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$173.01at 0.186Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of November?
- +$20.18at 0.723Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- +$17.00at 0.660US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$13.00at 0.350Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of November?
- +$9.40at 0.522Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-17 13:55 | Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $3M before 2027? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.91 |
| 04-17 13:55 | Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $3M before 2027? | SELL | 0.031 | $0.44 |
| 04-17 13:55 | Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $4M before 2027? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.77 |
| 04-17 13:54 | Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $2M before 2027? | SELL | 0.05 | $3.75 |
| 04-17 13:53 | Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $4M before 2027? | SELL | 0.043 | $0.64 |
| 03-23 21:16 | Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027? | SELL | 0.08 | $20.88 |
| 03-23 21:15 | Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $1M before 2027? | SELL | 0.09 | $2.25 |
| 03-23 21:12 | Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $4M before 2027? | SELL | 0.052 | $0.26 |
| 03-23 21:11 | Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $4M before 2027? | SELL | 0.054 | $0.27 |
| 03-23 21:11 | Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $4M before 2027? | SELL | 0.058 | $0.29 |
| 03-23 21:11 | Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $4M before 2027? | SELL | 0.061 | $0.30 |
| 03-23 21:11 | Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $4M before 2027? | SELL | 0.062 | $0.31 |
| 03-23 21:11 | Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $4M before 2027? | SELL | 0.063 | $0.32 |
| 03-16 08:05 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.44 | $11.00 |
| 02-02 13:43 | No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 | BUY | 0.14 | $28.00 |