holymolyly
0x94de352386a3ca843f7caa44576beebb70160847
- Realised P&L
- $-305.89
- Volume
- $212.9k
- Markets traded
- 556
- Open portfolio
- $83.90
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded556
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$211.06at 0.020Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
- +$142.00at 0.007Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 29°F or below on February 21?
- +$133.07at 0.064Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?
- +$41.46at 0.693Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 4?
- +$8.14at 0.860Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-01 03:05 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.61 | $3.89 |
| 04-01 03:05 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? | BUY | 0.5899999898 | $14.44 |
| 03-02 02:18 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 02-23 08:23 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.1153083667 | $34.59 |
| 02-23 08:22 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.0098339267 | $29.50 |
| 02-20 21:02 | Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 19? | BUY | 0.008 | $0.11 |
| 02-20 21:02 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on February 20? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 02-20 21:02 | Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on February 20? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.28 |
| 02-20 21:02 | Will Meta (META) close above $660 on February 20? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.08 |
| 02-20 21:02 | Will Meta (META) close above $620 on February 20? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.08 |
| 02-20 21:02 | Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on February 20? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.08 |
| 02-20 21:02 | Dow Jones (DJI) Up or Down on February 20? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.71 |
| 02-20 21:02 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on February 20? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.08 |
| 02-20 21:02 | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on February 20? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.08 |
| 02-20 21:02 | Will Apple (AAPL) close above $255 on February 20? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.08 |