0x94ce08B7eeaD0A58d9d7e0EE52028A30eFdCA9FA-1780435589258
0x94ce08b7eead0a58d9d7e0ee52028a30efdca9fa
- Realised P&L
- $-23.1k
- Volume
- $540.8k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration43.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration67.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? · No | 0.130 | 0.054 | $1.1k | −$1.5k |
| Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit? · No | 0.671 | 0.735 | $386.28 | +$33.52 |
| Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? · Yes | 0.509 | 0.200 | $135.19 | −$209.07 |
| Will Iran target Jordan by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.747 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$258.21 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.445 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.6k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30? · No | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$130.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.2kat 0.779US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
- +$2.7kat 0.205Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
- +$1.6kat 0.395Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
- +$998.06at 0.700Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
- +$144.29at 0.996Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 22:05 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? | BUY | 0.548 | $4.30 |
| 09-23 22:04 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? | BUY | 0.6981947138 | $52.57 |
| 09-23 22:04 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? | BUY | 0.7 | $140.00 |
| 09-23 22:03 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? | BUY | 0.3933372887 | $10.94 |
| 09-23 22:03 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during their summit? | BUY | 0.36183352 | $90.46 |
| 09-23 22:03 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit? | BUY | 0.7518737163 | $113.48 |
| 09-23 22:02 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit? | BUY | 0.644814002 | $176.29 |
| 09-23 22:02 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit? | BUY | 0.6199999953 | $31.50 |
| 09-23 22:02 | Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during their summit? | BUY | 0.6246812762 | $31.50 |
| 09-15 22:54 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.13 | $997.54 |
| 08-30 21:30 | Will Iran target Jordan by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7467750817 | $258.21 |
| 08-12 22:26 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 08-12 22:26 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 08-12 22:26 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 08-12 22:26 | Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |