PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

MMNiam

0x949ea13f3c629b948198736976dba7bfe0abf5f2

Realised P&L
$142.36
Volume
$6.8k
Markets traded
28
Open portfolio
$482.73

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded28
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration81.5% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample10 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31? · No0.4690.500$115.43+$7.22
Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 9? · Yes0.4410.320$87.20−$33.00
Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 9? · Yes0.7400.540$47.92−$17.75
Rubio flips Vance for GOP nomination by October 31? · No0.9690.980$39.18+$0.42
Senate control favorite on November 2? · Democratic Party0.9660.954$38.14−$0.50
Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31? · Yes0.5800.475$38.00−$8.40
Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31? · No0.4910.495$25.77+$0.22
House control favorite on November 2? · Democratic Party0.9760.988$19.76+$0.24
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31? · Yes0.2900.265$19.01−$1.79
Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31? · Yes0.2590.125$18.08−$19.44
Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31? · Yes0.1900.175$17.50−$1.50
No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27? · Hike 25 bps0.1670.150$8.26−$0.95
Republican Senate odds dip to 25% by October 31? · Yes0.2200.175$2.90−$0.75
Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15? · Yes0.0860.013$1.95−$10.89
Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31? · No0.4900.495$1.94+$0.02

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-03 16:25Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group StageBUY0.53$159.00
10-03 15:23Counter-Strike: G2 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group StageBUY0.52$78.00
10-03 12:25Counter-Strike: Spirit vs ShindeN - Map 1 WinnerBUY0.23$1.15
10-03 12:23Counter-Strike: Spirit vs ShindeN - Map 1 WinnerBUY0.29$58.00
10-02 16:00Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on October 2?BUY0.9840986667$147.61
09-30 23:20Republican Senate odds hit 50% by October 31?BUY0.13$1.04