0x9366052317c27675ceb005698e613813d82e6350
- Realised P&L
- $7.3k
- Volume
- $188.1k
- Markets traded
- 60
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded60
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.438 | 0.645 | $441.94 | +$141.94 |
| Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.474 | 0.570 | $360.58 | +$60.58 |
| Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? · Yes | 0.665 | 0.655 | $295.43 | −$4.57 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.125 | $250.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.646 | 0.536 | $248.92 | −$51.08 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.809 | 0.805 | $199.11 | −$0.89 |
| Will Russia target Kyiv on September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.766 | 0.790 | $154.66 | +$4.66 |
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.118 | 0.085 | $72.14 | −$27.86 |
| Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? · Yes | 0.493 | 0.023 | $4.67 | −$95.33 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.9kat 0.196Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$2.0kat 0.737Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.1kat 0.654Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
- +$1.1kat 0.734Hamburg European Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Nastasja Schunk
- +$1.1kat 0.685Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 05:06 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7661772218 | $150.00 |
| 09-08 08:51 | Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1178272652 | $100.00 |
| 09-08 08:50 | Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15? | BUY | 0.4928289495 | $100.00 |
| 09-08 08:49 | Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? | BUY | 0.6651224349 | $300.00 |
| 09-08 08:47 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.8086024392 | $200.00 |
| 09-08 08:46 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.9057982775 | $150.00 |
| 09-08 08:46 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.8716323294 | $150.00 |
| 09-08 08:44 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | BUY | 0.6899999995 | $300.00 |
| 09-04 12:02 | Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1892913455 | $100.00 |
| 08-30 21:29 | Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4378469025 | $300.00 |
| 08-30 21:29 | Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4742366421 | $300.00 |
| 08-30 21:10 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.6459999996 | $300.00 |
| 08-30 21:09 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $300.00 |
| 07-27 18:03 | The Memphis Classic: Katie Volynets vs Viktorija Golubic | BUY | 0.8099999998 | $300.00 |
| 07-21 18:22 | Hamburg European Open: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Nastasja Schunk | SELL | 0.0231147502 | $231.26 |