jessicanicholson
0x92f792001a42972ea8d30feb804a8f2d262ce3ec
- Realised P&L
- $-5.0k
- Volume
- $7.3k
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $62.18
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-67.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? · No | 0.590 | 0.790 | $28.31 | +$7.17 |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group A · Legacy | 0.530 | 0.495 | $15.06 | −$1.07 |
| Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7? · Yes | 0.940 | 0.970 | $13.57 | +$0.41 |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.215 | $5.23 | −$12.77 |
| Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15? · No | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$39.59at 0.473Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?
- +$36.07at 0.530Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?
- +$18.78at 0.569Will "Resident Evil" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
- +$12.73at 0.700China Open, Qualification: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Storm Hunter
- +$12.24at 0.599Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 04:50 | Exact Score: Any Other Score? | BUY | 0.7399999992 | $18.00 |
| 09-22 04:24 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 24? | BUY | 0.5819999984 | $17.76 |
| 09-17 22:09 | Will "Resident Evil" score at least 96 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.5562164025 | $24.21 |
| 01-31 14:00 | Will Ethena hit $0.29 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.76 |
| 01-30 16:51 | Will XRP dip to $1.00 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.17 |
| 01-30 16:14 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.71 |
| 01-30 15:01 | Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $26.33 |
| 01-30 13:22 | Will XRP dip to $1.20 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $47.01 |
| 12-30 17:23 | Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $4.00 |
| 12-30 09:09 | Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $14.46 |
| 12-29 21:12 | Will Trump pardon Young Thug in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.52 |
| 12-29 20:00 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.992 | $52.51 |
| 10-30 19:51 | Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? | BUY | 0.9909999667 | $25.78 |
| 10-30 19:26 | Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.70 |
| 10-30 18:14 | Will Oracle be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $28.72 |