0x92EaE9d2f5ad6c0af186980f8F8399CFb45dFf82-1722000940006
0x92eae9d2f5ad6c0af186980f8f8399cfb45dff82
- Realised P&L
- $370.47
- Volume
- $21.0k
- Markets traded
- 260
- Open portfolio
- $485.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded260
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.672 | 0.945 | $406.32 | +$117.35 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.800 | $32.18 | −$2.82 |
| US defaults on debt by 2027? · No | 0.969 | 0.967 | $21.82 | −$0.06 |
| Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.835 | $21.14 | +$1.14 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,500-$8,000 in December? · Yes | 0.257 | 0.195 | $3.90 | −$1.25 |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18? · No | 0.375 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? · No | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$39.53 |
| ELH: Motor České Budějovice vs. Mladá Boleslav · Motor České Budějovice | 0.624 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be between 1.8% and 2.0%? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.75at 0.646Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?
- +$42.90at 0.373Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?
- +$40.29at 0.548MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?
- +$38.90at 0.217Will Trump lower tariffs on EU in April?
- +$22.00at 0.650Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 12:12 | ELH: Motor České Budějovice vs. Mladá Boleslav | BUY | 0.6237623305 | $5.00 |
| 09-10 15:36 | Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be between 1.8% and 2.0%? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 10:00 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.869999998 | $35.00 |
| 09-09 08:48 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.3 | $61.07 |
| 09-09 08:48 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $10.14 |
| 09-08 20:54 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.3499999964 | $19.68 |
| 09-08 20:49 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $9.00 |
| 09-08 20:49 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $10.50 |
| 09-08 19:06 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.3393213554 | $50.00 |
| 09-08 19:06 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1183035272 | $20.00 |
| 09-08 12:17 | US defaults on debt by 2027? | BUY | 0.9689999725 | $21.88 |
| 09-05 15:26 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $10.00 |
| 09-02 11:53 | Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999968 | $20.00 |
| 08-30 15:35 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase August 25-31? | SELL | 0.9193984 | $28.73 |
| 08-30 12:51 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase August 25-31? | BUY | 0.64 | $20.00 |